Methodology

How the provisional market-data quality score is calculated and what it does — and does not — tell you.

What the score measures

The score is a provisional 0–100 market-data quality heuristic calculated from the public fields currently available. The six factor scores below are averaged equally and rounded to the nearest whole number.

It is not a prediction of the market outcome, a scientifically validated score, a Kalshi rating, or financial advice. A higher score only indicates that the available snapshot scored better on these limited data-quality proxies; it does not establish that the displayed probability is accurate or that any outcome is more likely.

Scoring factors

Market record recency1 of 6

Uses Kalshi's updated_time for the market record: 95 below 3 minutes, 70 below 10, 40 below 60, and 20 otherwise or when unavailable. This timestamp is not definitive quote freshness.

Trade participation1 of 6

Inferred from available 24-hour contract volume, not from unique traders. Scores are 90 at 10,000+, 70 at 1,000+, 45 above zero, and 20 at zero or when unavailable.

Liquidity1 of 6

Estimated from the greatest available value among 24-hour volume, open interest, and public YES bid/ask quote sizes. It uses the same activity thresholds as participation.

Bid-ask spread1 of 6

Uses the available YES bid-ask spread: 90 at 2 points or less, 70 at 5 or less, 45 at 10 or less, 20 above 10, and 0 when a two-sided quote is unavailable.

Sustained volume1 of 6

Currently uses the same available 24-hour activity measure and thresholds as participation. It does not use a full historical volume series.

Price stability1 of 6

Currently fixed at a neutral score of 50 because the required historical price series is unavailable.

Score bands

Higher data quality75–100

Moderate data quality55–74

Lower data quality40–54

Poor data quality0–39

Warning severity

Serious (red)

Data or execution risks that can materially affect interpretation, such as an older market record or a very wide spread.

Caution (amber)

Conditions worth noting before relying on the price, such as a move driven by a few large trades.

Informational (gray)

Minor context that rarely changes the read on its own, such as a slightly elevated spread.

Resolution (blue)

Ambiguity in the methodology or resolution rules — what counts as a YES may be open to interpretation.

This is not financial advice

This provisional heuristic summarizes available market-data quality proxies, not the probability that YES will win. It is not scientifically validated, financial advice, or a recommendation to trade. Always do your own research and understand each market's resolution rules.

SignalLedger is an independent research tool. Public Kalshi market data is live, while some market-detail charts, order-book depth, and recent-trade displays remain modeled and are clearly labeled. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.